The El Nino climate cycle, which spreads warm, dry air around the globe every four years or so, doubles the risk of civil wars in 90 tropical countries, researchers reported on Wednesday.And because El Nino patterns can be predicted up to two years in advance, scientists suggest their findings could be used to help prepare for some conflicts and the humanitarian crises they cause.
Historians and climate specialists have noted signs that changes in climate sent past societies into conflict and decline, but this is the first study to quantify the link between El Nino's heat, the droughts that follow, and upheaval in countries that bear the brunt of it.
Between 1950 and 2004, one out of every five civil conflicts were influenced by El Nino, scientists reported in the journal Nature.
El Nino starts as a large patch of warm water in the tropical Pacific and influences global climate and weather across much of Africa, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Australia and the Americas.
This pattern can cause large crop losses and increased risk of natural disasters like hurricanes and the spread of infectious diseases, study co-author Kyle Meng of Columbia University's Earth Institute. more
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